Does migration lead to more crime?
Background & Context
A long-term view argues against a simple claim such as “more migration automatically means more crime.” Mediendienst Integration, a German information service focused on migration and integration, points out that the number of foreign residents has risen sharply since 2005 while the overall crime rate, excluding immigration-law offenses, has fallen. The violent-crime rate in 2025 was also roughly at its 2005 level.
That does not mean, however, that migration cannot be associated with different trends in specific types of crime or population groups. Mediendienst itself notes that the research is inconclusive and that some studies find correlations for particular groups and offenses.
An additional analysis of Germany’s Police Crime Statistics (PKS) for 2023 through 2025 shows why aggregate figures alone are not enough. Germany’s foreign resident population rose by about 1.3% during that period.
At the same time, the number of non-German suspects in offenses excluding immigration-law violations fell by about 2.5%, from 694,981 to 677,951. Violent crime moved in the opposite direction: the number of non-German suspects rose from 79,088 to 82,565, an increase of about 4.4%.
Their share of all suspects in 2025 was 35.5% for offenses excluding immigration-law violations, compared with 42.9% for violent crime. The differences are even more pronounced among individual nationalities.
Between 2023 and 2025, Germany’s Syrian resident population fell by about 3.7%, while the number of Syrian suspects rose by about 6.8% for offenses excluding immigration-law violations and by about 19.5% for violent crime. Among Ukrainian nationals, the resident population grew by about 13.7%, while suspect numbers rose by about 22% for offenses excluding immigration-law violations and by about 67% for violent crime.
Among Polish nationals, both population and suspect numbers declined; among Romanian nationals, violent-crime suspect numbers remained broadly stable. These differences do not establish a simple causal relationship between nationality, migration, and crime.
Police statistics record suspects, not convicted offenders, and non-German suspects can include people who do not permanently live in Germany. The groups also differ in age, gender, socioeconomic circumstances, and regional distribution.
The data therefore show that a long-term decline in the overall crime rate does not rule out divergent trends within particular offenses and groups—just as higher suspect shares alone do not prove that migration caused those differences.
Non-German suspects: total declines – violent crime stays above 2023
Trend for non-German crime suspects and the foreign resident population, Index 2023 = 100. Hover or tap the points for exact values.
| Year | Foreign population | Non-German suspects – excl. immigration offences | Non-German suspects – violent crime | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| absolute | Index (2023 = 100) | absolute | Index (2023 = 100) | absolute | Index (2023 = 100) | |
| 2023 | 13,895,865 | 100.0 | 694,981 | 100.0 | 79,088 | 100.0 |
| 2024 | 14,061,640 | 101.2 | 696,873 | 100.3 | 85,012 | 107.5 |
| 2025 | 14,070,225 | 101.3 | 677,951 | 97.5 | 82,565 | 104.4 |
The total tells a true story — but not the whole one.
Population: Destatis / Central Register of Foreigners (AZR), table 12521-0003, reference date 31 Dec. Suspects: BKA Police Crime Statistics T62 (non-German), violent crime and total excluding immigration-law offences.
Article Profile
Dramatization
Low
2/10
The article covers the topic largely soberly, without dramatic exaggeration.
Moralizing
Low
1/10
The presentation largely avoids moral judgments.
Sharpening
Low
2/10
The article is nuanced and avoids confrontational sharpening.
Objectivity
High
9/10
The article is largely factual and fact-oriented.
Review Transparency
The Mediendienst’s long-term figures are based on the Polizeiliche Kriminalstatistik and population data. In addition, for 2023 to 2025, suspect counts from the BKA, Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office, were compared with population figures from the Central Register of Foreigners.
For offenses excluding immigration violations, only the official PKS aggregate code 890000 was used; suspect numbers from different offense groups were not subtracted from each other.
The analysis distinguishes between general offenses and specific categories such as violent crime. Nationality is not the same as a migration background.
The PKS records suspects, not convicted offenders, and only captures the cases known to police. Moreover, non-German suspects may include people without permanent residence in Germany.
The available data have not yet been adjusted for age, gender, social situation, or residence status. Therefore, no individual crime risks and no causality between nationality or migration and crime are inferred from the differences presented.
Impact Check
Does it affect you?
60% impact
Public perceptions of migration and crime are influenced because statistically no increase in crime due to migration is documented.
Security risk?
10% impact
No security risk for Germany, as the crime rate has not risen despite migration.
Historic?
75% impact
Historical data show that migration has not increased crime over the last 20 years, countering prejudices.
Why is this article's headline most likely an analysis
The question cannot be answered with a blanket yes or no. At the long-term aggregate level, the data do not show a simple relationship in which a growing foreign population automatically produces a higher overall crime rate.
But the more detailed PKS data reveal very different trends beneath the national total. Between 2023 and 2025, the number of non-German suspects in offenses excluding immigration-law violations declined slightly, while it increased in violent crime.
Individual nationalities also show markedly different patterns. Aggregate figures therefore cannot rule out different developments in specific areas, while suspect counts alone cannot establish that migration caused higher levels of crime.
The offense, time period, population structure, and group being examined all matter.
This analysis is based on a journalistic report by mediendienst-integration.de. The rating and context were produced with AI assistance.
AI Transparency
This analysis was produced, structured and editorially reviewed with AI-assisted systems. The rating refers to the specific statement examined and is based on the sources cited.
Methodology & AI Transparency